Analysis of the impact of the trade war between China and America on the RMB exchange rate under the R-vine copula model from the perspective of the global value chain

Abstract Changes in the RMB exchange rate (ExRate) impact major strategic directions, such as China’s rise, “Belt and Road” initiative, internationalization. Studying of trade war between China America on ExRate is significant. This paper constructs an R-vine copula model studies influencing factors mechanism ExRate. The Trade analyzed detail. Besides, used to analyze fluctuations returns Association Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). employed study volatility return series ASEAN countries, mean dependence coefficients estimation results parameters are analyzed. Finally, obtained. There a relation Chinese tariffs analyzing negative correlation positive value surplus without considering monetary policy. currency has risen grown. Stable foreign reserves can stabilize It concluded that economic cooperation become increasingly frequent under influence through analysis. risk further increases yield sequence fluctuates significantly. lower tail dependency coefficient for market dependencies slightly larger than upper coefficient. bad news clear. In context current intensifying, sharp caused by have promoted transformation growth. shift from commodity export capital realized. reasons changes need be explored. recommended continuously deepen reform system maintain stable development